What is on most Americans’ minds today is neither global warming nor their President’s sexual adventures or political-business misadventures. What looms before Americans today is the partial suspension of operations of their federal government, now in its 22nd day and the longest in US history. Significantly, it is the third time in his presidency that Donald Trump has triggered a federal government shut-down and it is now beginning to seriously affect American life.
Meanwhile, in Palestine, Israeli forces shot and killed a woman in the Gaza Strip on Friday as troops opened fire, yet again, on civilian demonstrators protesting the 70-year occupation of Palestine by Israel and the near-starvation siege of the Gaza Strip. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Theresa May now faces a political nightmare after her own ruling party was joined by the opposition Labour Party and smaller parties in rejecting her government’s proposals to the European Union on ways for the UK to exit the Union.
May has barely seven weeks (before the automatic exit deadline) to make a fresh effort at an orderly and cushioned withdrawal of the UK from the EU. If she cannot, then the UK will be compelled to exit the EU without any fixed agreement with the Union that will cushion the impact of the withdrawal.
Whether she opts for a ‘no deal’ Brexit or for a second referendum with the hope that a majority will reject Brexit in toto, May faces the prospect of the ire of her Conservative Party voter base who will either be unhappy over the expected economic pinch resulting from an un-cushioned withdrawal or, unhappy that she failed to implement the previous referendum’s mandate. Either way, the future electoral prospects for the Conservative Party do not look good.
In addition to over 800,000 federal government employees now missing their monthly salary and some having to continue working without pay to ensure certain services remain in operation, by this week, millions more Americans face some kind of disruption in their lives due to the government shut-down. Military retirees, numbering millions, will not get their pension cheques while those veterans suffering from various combat-induced or old age ailments will not get their regular treatment. And landlords of federal employees now without pay will not get their monthly rent income which for some is a vital part of their livelihood.
Farmers dependent on regular credit and other free government facilities are now stuck without those regular inputs for them to proceed with their farming. It is the same with small businesses. A whole vast range of industrial and consumer products may now be temporarily without key quality checks due to the suspension of government quality testing and other quality monitoring. These effects are but the tip of the huge iceberg of problems arising from the shut-down of the US federal government.
The government’s suspension of operations is due to President Trump’s continued refusal to sign into law the government spending bill submitted by Congress which continues to be dominated by Trump’s own Republican Party which controls the Senate. He refuses to do so because neither his own Republicans nor the Democrats are willing to include, in the government spending budget, the cost of building a concrete wall along the entire length of the US southern border with Mexico.
This ‘wall’ was one of Trump’s vote-catching gimmicks in his presidential election campaign. But since it was only an election gimmick and not regarded by any experts or by other politicians as a viable idea, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats are prepared to authorise public funds for it construction.
According to most analysts, the primary reason why Trump is taking this idea to such an extreme as shutting down the government is because the resultant uproar and news media focus shifts attention away from a far more ‘real’ issue. This is the mounting problem of the many investigations and criminal prosecutions now under way in relation to either Trump’s corrupt election campaign practices, the criminal efforts to hide those practices by his senior associates and, most controversially, he and his campaign staff’s possible collusion with the Russian Government with the intention of obtaining Russia’s covert support to win the election.
What has already emerged from the several parallel probes, is the hard fact that Russia had, indeed, covertly intervened to both generally subvert the US electoral system as well as tilt news media and social media content in favour of a Trump victory. What is yet to be conclusively established is whether the Trump campaign actually collaborated with these covert Russian efforts and also, whether Trump himself knew about it.
But as the moment of truth that will confirm the depths of depravity and treachery of the US president approaches, the President and his legal counsel are reportedly in a state of panic over the impact on Trump personally and the presidency. American analysts speculate that the on-going seemingly irrational posturing by the President over his ridiculous “border wall” and his dramatic shut-down of federal government are all Trump’s desperate attempts to distract public attention away from the criminal probes.
And when the opposition Democrats did not wilt under the Trumpian braggadocio, the President raised the stakes in the on-going political battle by threatening to declare a national emergency and commandeer funds from other governmental allocations for use on the wall. After days of such presidential threats and consequent speculation about a possible constitutional crisis, yesterday Trump said he was postponing the decision on an emergency declaration. But the issue of the ‘wall’ remains highlighted by Trump himself due to his need to distract.
Meanwhile, the seriousness of the charges mounting against Trump’s senior aides and increasing possibility of seriously implicating the President himself in both election law violations as well as in treasonous transactions with a foreign rival power (Russia), now clouds the future of the Trump presidency.
US media platforms are full of debates whether the American President is barred from direct prosecution for crimes. At the same time, the alternative to criminal prosecution, namely, the impeachment of the president by the US Congress (with the Senate playing the decisive role) is also now under public discussion.
Interestingly, Trump’s biggest media supporter, the Fox TV news channel, has begun to move away from blindly and triumphantly supporting Trump, with many news anchors now casting doubts on his controversial statements and actions.
And there are some who feel that the next best thing would be for Trump to resign from office and save the reputation of his Republican Party.
In this light, there is now much speculation whether Trump might resign as a face-saving measure before his term ends in 2020. While that will be a rare moment in American political history, it will also be a demonstration of the strength and integrity of America’s political system and judiciary.