If you happen to live in a coastal city such as Colombo or an island such as the Maldives by 2100, there is bad news: Global sea levels could rise by at least two metres and displace tens of millions of people by the end of the century if greenhouse emissions remain uncontrolled, according to a new study.
In fact, the area of land claimed by the Oceans would be equivalent to that of France, Germany, Spain and Britain combined (roughly 1.79 million square kilometres or 691,120 square miles) and nearly 240 million people will be at risk. We are talking of big cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, Rio de Janeiro and Shanghai here, plus most of the world’s small islands.
The report, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, states this outcome is the worst-case scenario, in which global temperatures would rise by more than five degrees Celsius by 2100. Granted, not many of us will be around by that time, but someone born this year will probably live to witness this catastrophic event.
But why the alarm? Actually, the new projections double the benchmark estimates previously published by the UN, suggesting that the melting of the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to accelerating the rise of sea levels. The problem is that they contain enough frozen water to raise the world’s oceans dozens of metres. Needless to say, this would have very profound consequences for the future of humanity, since a vast majority of the world population is found in coastal regions. This would in effect be like a tsunami, albeit a gradual one, that could displace tens of millions of people.
Earlier, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a sea level rise of one metre by 2100. That in itself would bring tragic consequences to many islanders, but two metres would be even more cataclysmic. Just last year, the IPCC called for a drastic and immediate reduction in coal, oil and gas consumption to arrest the rapid rise in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate Change, or global warming, is caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as gas, coal and oil, which release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into the atmosphere. This extra Carbon Dioxide causes temperatures of the atmosphere and oceans to rise to levels that cannot be explained by natural causes.
Scientists have since viewed the original IPCC prediction as being very conservative, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise year after year. Satellite pictures show acceleration in the melting of massive ice sheets near Antarctica and Greenland. To get an accurate picture, the researchers asked 22 ice sheet experts to estimate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets might respond to future climate change, using newly advanced regional- and continental-scale, process-based computer models.
“The two-metre sea level rise that we project is not the most likely scenario but is a plausible scenario. So it is one we should consider if we want to plan and adapt to future sea level rises. It really is pretty grim. Two meters is not a good scenario,” Jonathan Bamber, a professor at the University of Bristol and the lead researcher of the study, has said. They have based their warning on the fact that emissions have increased even after the Paris Agreement of 2015. The deal aims to limit global temperature rises to well below two degrees Celsius and encourages countries to work towards a 1.5-degree limit. If global carbon emissions are indeed contained and the temperature rise is kept below 2°C, the best case scenario in terms of sea level rise would be a 2.3-foot rise by 2100. The Earth has already heated one degree Celsius since pre-industrial times, contributing roughly three millimetres to the sea levels each year.
However, the pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord by some powerful countries and the rise to power of Climate Change skeptics in many other countries has aggravated the situation. This is a worrying trend, as these leaders are pushing for coal, thermal and other fossil fuel powered projects that could raise greenhouse emission levels at the expense of renewable energies such as wind and solar. Even the simple act of not giving any concessions for electric cars could help raise greenhouse gas emissions as buyers would not then see any advantage of buying an electric car over an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) car.
With most fossil fuels expected to run out within our lifetimes, there is no real alternative to renewables perhaps other than nuclear fusion power, which is still at an experimental stage. Several countries such as Germany are already capable of powering up entirely with renewable energy sources, but the world collectively has a long way to go before entirely going “renewable”.
One inhibiting factor for the widespread adoption of renewable energy was the relatively high cost. For example, a solar panel set up for generating electricity for a normal household could cost say, Rs.2 million, but it is far easier to tap into the National Grid. But what if this comes down to about Rs.500,000 which will enable more people to ‘go solar’ with a far quicker Return on Investment (ROI) ? This is exactly what seems to be happening right now, as experts say that prices of renewable energy hardware are falling rapidly.
For example, battery technology, the essential element in ensuring continuity of the power supply from weather-dependent sources such as wind and solar, has now become cost competitive. For lithium-ion batteries, the ‘Levelized Cost of Electricity’ (LCOE) - the total cost of building and operating an electricity-generating plant - has fallen by 35 percent since the first half of 2018, according to an analysis by BloombergNEF.
Battery storage is increasingly being added to solar and wind plants to help maintain supply. Earlier this year, Abu Dhabi switched on what it said was the world’s largest battery plant, able to store 648 MWh to balance demand on the grid and keep the city supplied for up to six hours in the event of a blackout.
At the same time, the LCOE for offshore wind has dropped by 24%. Onshore wind and solar’s benchmark costs fell 10% and 18% respectively from last year. Since 2010, the benchmark price for solar has dropped 84%, offshore wind by more than half and onshore wind by 49%.
The price of lithium-ion battery storage has dropped by more than three quarters since 2012. This is an encouraging trend that shows the world should now push for more renewables in earnest in order to avert a deadly rise in greenhouse gases and sea levels.