If even a few years ago someone floated the idea of a land war in Europe in the 21st Century, that person would have been laughed out of hand. A war in Europe was simply unthinkable. After all, wars do not happen in “civilised” continents such as Europe. They are supposed to happen only in the Third World – in places such as Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Eritrea and Iraq.
Unfortunately, this reverie was comprehensively shattered on the morning of February 24, when Russian tanks rolled into neighbouring Ukraine. This is the first major war in Europe after 1945, when World War II ended.
Tensions between the two neighbours have been simmering since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea without much resistance. The West imposed some sanctions on Russia and condemned the annexation, but Crimea’s fate was forgotten soon afterwards. Unrest also erupted in other parts of Ukraine where rebels loyal to Russia were operating.
The West has woken up only now, with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The West, though, is hardly qualified to pontificate to other countries on the futility of invasion and war, having invaded a host of countries including Grenada, Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq (infamously in the search for non-existent Weapons of Mass Destruction) and leaving all these countries in an utter mess. They do not talk about their human rights record in these countries, as their military campaigns have left thousands of civilians dead. These issues rarely come up at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), where Sri Lanka and many other so-called ‘Third World’ countries often come under fire for their alleged poor human rights records.
But two wrongs do not make a right and invading another sovereign country is wrong, whatever the motives are – and even if they are genuine grievances. Negotiations are a much better path – and it is heartening to note that even amid the drumbeats of war, high-powered delegations from Russia and Ukraine are sitting down for talks aimed at resolving these issues. There is also talk of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several third countries have offered to host such a meeting. Both Presidents have expressed their willingness to have such a round of talks, if they could result in a tangible solution.
There are several scenarios on how the war would end and of them, only the above option offers a glimmer of hope. The only silver lining in this regard is the fact that the current negotiations are going well – at least on the surface – and both sides have proved to be flexible. The Ukrainian President has already given up the idea of joining NATO, (a key Russian demand) though he has applied to join the European Union (EU). From the point of view of Russia, having a NATO member on their doorstep could be a security headache.
According to some experts, one way in which the war could end is for Ukraine to cede Crimea and the two ‘independent republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk (known collectively as the Donbas) to Russia and pledge neutrality along the lines of Sweden and Switzerland. Russia would however like to see another Government in Ukraine that is supportive of Moscow, which is perhaps one of the aims of the current “special military operation” as the Kremlin calls the war.
But the Kremlin must be concerned that it is not going too well at the moment, though there is hardly any doubt on paper that the vast Russian military can ultimately overpower the Ukrainian one. But how long it will take is the question. Twenty-five days into the incursion, Russia is yet to gain entry to Kyiv. Many Russian tanks and APCs have been destroyed, partly with the aid of Javelin missiles supplied by the West.
Amazingly, the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying, though President Zelensky has appealed to the West multiple times to impose a “No-Fly Zone” over Ukraine to prevent Russian jets from flying in. Western leaders including US President Joe Biden have firmly rejected this appeal, knowing that such an arrangement could bring US or NATO jets into a direct confrontation with Russian jets in Ukrainian airspace.
This is a wise course of action, as the above possibility could even lead to World War III, which President Biden has alluded to on more than one occasion. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said, World War III will necessarily be nuclear. President Putin has indicated, without actually mentioning the word ‘nuclear’, that extreme measures could be deployed. The world has already experienced the horrors of a nuclear catastrophe in 1945 and another one should be avoided at all costs as today’s nuclear weapons are much more powerful and can destroy the planet many times over.
Still, there is the possibility of a small tactical nuclear weapon being used at some point if the war drags on. The use of chemical or biological weapons is an equally dire possibility. There have been several instances of chemical weapons deployment in recent times. In all these scenarios, it is innocent civilians who will suffer. Many civilians have already perished in Ukraine and de-escalation is the only answer to prevent further casualties.
The war also has implications for energy and food supplies as sanctions-hit Russia is a major oil producer and both countries are major producers of wheat and other grains. This is yet another reason why Russia and Ukraine must intensify their efforts to negotiate a way out of this conflict. The International Community must help that effort, instead of stoking the embers of war.