Fitch Ratings has upgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-’ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC+’ or below. The Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR has been affirmed at ‘RD’ and the Country Ceiling at ‘B-’.
The Short-Term Local-Currency IDR has been downgraded to ‘RD’ from ‘C’ following the exchange of Treasury Bills held by the Central Bank and subsequently upgraded to ‘C’ in line with the Sovereign Rating Criteria, as we believe the local-currency debt exchange has now been completed.
Local-Currency Debt Exchange Completed: The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-’ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) Treasury Bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on September 21, 2023.
We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt.
Government Debt Remains High: General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF program forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.
