The peaceful rise of China projected by Deng Xiaoping in the 70s has come to its extinction with the robust development of Chinese expansionism, which woke up the West from its slumber. Today, from Washington to New Delhi, many scholars unleash their sceptical views, in which some depict China to be a villainous power and others hail Beijing to be a civilisational state to confront the Western hegemony.
It is against this polemic, that Prof. Patrick Mendis, a Sri Lankan-born US academic unveils his reading on China’s strategic thinking through civilisational lenses. The lecture that Prof. Mendis delivered in the presence of Rear Admiral Dammika Kumara at General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University exposed how China’s strategic thinking widened its gaze to increase its formidable presence in the Indo-Pacific. Being a recipient of China’s International Confucius award from the PRC and another distinguished award from the US Senate, Prof. Patrick coins a new strategy named “Blue Dragon Strategy”.
Blue Dragon
By nature, “Dragon” is a metaphor, which is connected to Chinese history with multiple interpretations and Prof. Mendis’ coinage of Blue Dragon indicates how China encircles Indo-Pacific region by giving a strong message to the West. The first frontier in the strategy is related to territorial disputes over Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands (as known in Japan). While continuing its operational air and sea activities encircling Taiwan and the cross-strait region, China has been penetrating the East China Sea and beyond into the Western Pacific.
Prof. Patrick Mendis delivering a lecture at General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University
The increasingly militaristic China has been demonstrating its show of force to Taiwan. The increase of PLAN’s (People’s Liberation Army Navy) strength along with the two aircraft carriers Liaonning and Shandong, China continues its gray zone pressure in Taiwan’s strait and the Senaku Islands, which even deters the US base in the Okinawa.
The second frontier of the Blue Dragon strategy is visible from China’s macho behaviour in the South China Sea, where Chinese engage in militarising artificial islands. Notwithstanding the decision of the arbitral tribunal in 2016, which ruled that Beijing had no legitimacy for its sovereign claim, China released a new standard map that includes the nine dash lines in the South China Sea. In Prof. Patrick’s analysis, China’s third blue dragon frontier expands to the Indian Ocean as Chinese strive to gain dominance there.
In tracing China’s development of naval strategy consolidating Indian Ocean has its roots to the time of Ho Jintao, who coined the famous phase “Malacca Dilemma” referring to China’s inability of importing oil in a case if a rival power blocks the narrow strait of Malacca, which would undermine the Chinese interests. In this backdrop China widens its gaze towards Indian Ocean by increasing its constant presence in the IOR.
In 1999, there was not a single PLAN port visit in the Indian Ocean, but this lethargy was transformed into a novel stage since 2010 as PLAN began its visits to the Indian Ocean every year. The recent arrival of Hai Yang 24 Hao in the Colombo Port, is just a yearly gesture that PLAN has been maintaining in the Indian Ocean, in which Sri Lanka is caught up as a pawn. Besides, increasing its naval presence in the Indian Ocean in an alarming manner, China is the only nation to set up embassies in the all the six nations in the Indian Ocean.
The last chain of the Blue Dragon strategy coined by Prof. Mendis points out China’s shrewd mechanism on the geopolitics of water in the Brahmaputra River basin in India and Bangladesh and the Mekong River in South East Asia. Prof. Mendis argues Beijing may use a powerful water card of manipulation against the downstream countries. In this context, the continuity of the Truman doctrine known as the US containment policy is less likely to be useful in confronting indomitable China.
Modern dilemmas
To understand China, one should fathom her past as our history always unfolds the roots of modern dilemmas albeit many nations lack the prudence to identify them. From centuries of humiliation under the yoke of West, China learned its bitter lessons and their reluctance in admitting the authority of rule-based international law stems from that past, where China itself was unreasonably forced to admit unequal treaties in the aftermath of the Opium War.
Thus, the Chinese approach to the current world is grounded on its civilisational order, in which China remains the “Middle Kingdom” and the rest of the nations can strive for their destinies under one heaven. When Admiral Zheng He visited Sri Lanka in the 15th century, the famous Trilingual inscription he erected in Galle denotes one central message “A Peaceful World built on trade”.
The same desire emanates from the strategists and policymakers in Beijing today through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which contains some salient problems. Prof. Patrick Mendis’ “Blue Dragon Strategy” reveals the mechanism that China wants to adopt in pursuit of its commercial dream. It reflects the acumen of Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” as the four frontiers of the strategy are akin to attaining Chinese victory even without waging a war.
Thucydides’ Trap
Nonetheless, the missing point of Prof. Mendis’ most compelling strategy is the inherent nature of great powers before each other’s growth, which can be described as “Thucydides’ Trap”. The US’s threat perception of Chinese expansionism will become a decisive factor, which might alter the future of this planet. Moreover, the “Blue Dragon Strategy” has left its emphasis on China’s lack of air power compared to the high superiority of the USA.
Soviet experience in the Indian Ocean during the Cold War is a classic example showing the futility of having a high number of ships as they had no access to safe ports. Despite owning three aircraft carriers, the Chinese still use J-15 fighter jets, which cannot outmatch the F-18s of the US Airforce. Therefore, it is plausible to assume America’s supreme airpower can subdue PLAN’s presence in the Indian Ocean
On the whole, Prof. Patrick Mendis’ “Blue Dragon Strategy” is a timely reading on how Beijing continues its encirclement for the fulfilment of the Chinese Dream of Xi Jinping, who has vowed to transform China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong and civilised by 2049. But it should be noted Chinese strategy is not a panacea in achieving all these objectives as history shows how undemocratic systems collapse even without giving much time to retreat.
A writer is a lecturer at the Faculty of Law, General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University
