Sri Lanka, located in the equatorial belt, is blessed with an abundance of sun and wind. It is, therefore, somewhat surprising that we are still lagging behind in the Renewable Energy (RE) race. However, other countries, both developed and developing, have raced far ahead. In fact, some countries can already generate 100 percent of their power demand from RE alone for short periods. Soon, they will be able to do so 24/7.
We are penning these words in the context of the latest reports that RE will this year shrink fossil fuels’ reigning share of the global electricity market for the first time. That is the key finding of Ember, a leading energy think tank based in London, which on Wednesday published its first comprehensive Global Electricity Review (GER) analysing data from 215 countries including Sri Lanka.
The report disclosed that thanks to the galloping pace of new Solar and Wind capacity, RE has been claiming almost all growth in electricity demand for five years, leaving fossil fuels stagnant. But this year, said Ember, they will also roll back fossil fuels’ market share by 2 percent – the beginning of a decade-long process of knocking them out of electricity production altogether in three dozen developed economies. Two percent may not sound like much, but given the vast extent of the fossil fuel industry, it is a creditable achievement.
Renewables expanded by an average of 3.5 percent a year during the past decade, compared with an annual 1.5 percent in the previous decade, as prices for Photo Voltaic (PV) panels and wind turbines dropped and their productivity or efficiency soared. Ember found that the world already produced a record 30 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources last year.
In addition to the full-year effect of newly installed capacity, Ember says that a 50 percent collapse of solar panel prices in the final months of 2023 will also lead to record new installations around the world. As a result, RE generation this year will add a mammoth 1,221 terawatt hours of electricity supply, compared with 513 TWh added last year. That means trouble for coal-fired power stations, but it could also spell danger for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). As more countries encourage Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales, retail fossil fuel sales will also experience a decline, albeit a slight one as around 95 percent of vehicles around the world still run on petrol and diesel. But this could change within the next 10 years as BEVs gradually gain mass acceptance.
But one country in particular has driven the massive change in RE and BEV growth – China. Last year alone, it installed half the world’s solar panels and 60 percent of the wind turbines, easily rating as the Green Energy transition leader. It manufactures as much as 85 percent of the solar panels the rest of the world installs.
China has also become a leader in the electrification of transport and heating, two of the most polluting sectors of the economy after electricity production. China’s BYD has overtaken Tesla in terms of the number of BEVs sold worldwide. Last year it put more electric vehicles on the road and heat pumps into homes than the rest of the world combined, and was responsible for almost all new electricity demand.
Of course, the BEV revolution won’t work if the electricity for the chargers is generated by fossil or thermal fuels. Then BEVs will still be burning fossil fuel in reality, even if they nominally run on battery power. Instead, the installation of solar-based chargers (and also ultra-expensive DC superchargers) should be encouraged wherever possible.
Sri Lankan authorities, who are most likely to permit the import of mostly BEVs from next year, must bear this in mind. Chargers depending on RE technologies will actually make BEV-based transport carbon neutral. When approving the entry of several foreign players to the local retrial fuel market, the authorities should have insisted upon having at least one electric car charger at each new filling station, with retrofitting an option for existing ones.
Sri Lanka has set its sights on generating 70 percent of the projected power demand from RE sources by 2030. Just as the deal reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will have to be honoured more or less by any incoming Government, the same policy should apply to RE. All political parties must thus be committed to grant concessions and incentives to encourage the switch to RE and BEVs.
One cannot also forget that the fossil fuel industry is trying its best to “greenwash” their so-called Dino-Juice fuels as well as oil exploration even in pristine environments. They are very closely linked to the political establishments, especially the far-Right and Conservative ones in both developed and developing countries. Some of them have actually urged Governments to roll back RE initiatives. They also try to mislead consumers on RE and BEVs, which could be one reason why BEV sales have fallen in certain key markets.
But make no mistake, RE and BEVs are the future. Governments must be bold enough to phase out fossil fuels both for energy generation and transport as soon as possible. Most countries including Sri Lanka have set a realistic target (2035) in this regard and they must stick to it, despite the ugly machinations of the fossil fuel lobby.
