One of the most consequential elections in post-Independence Sri Lanka was conducted yesterday. The Presidential Election (PE) was significant in many ways, being the first national poll conducted since the country faced its worst economic crisis since 1948. The crisis resulted in a mass agitation, commonly called the Aragalaya (Struggle), which forced the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and resign by email.
Things are much better now, thanks to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) sanctioned austerity and debt restructuring program initiated by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded Gotabaya Rajapaksa in a Parliamentary vote. But as the IMF itself recently announced, Sri Lanka is not entirely out of the woods yet. Thus, the victorious candidate – and incoming President – who will be known by this afternoon, will have his hands full with regard to the economy. In a way, this election has been all about the economy, perhaps at the expense of other pressing issues such as ethnic reconciliation. However, all leading candidates have pledged to continue with the IMF program, with amendments where necessary. In other words, they have taken cognizance of the need to go ahead with economic reforms, some of which can be painful.
The dynamics of this election are also different from any previous PE, which mostly featured a battle between two opponents. This time, there were four main candidates in the fray, plus at least three more candidates who the voters have found to be credible enough. All candidates and their political parties/alliances deserve praise for conducting their campaigns sans any major acts of violence, although there were about 4,000 minor violations. This is a deviation from many previous polls and a trend that should continue at the forthcoming General Election (GE). It is also a sign of political maturity.
Grassroots supporters of candidates must always refrain from violence at all costs. Fighting over politics mano a mano is simply not worth it. We do not hear of any violent incidents during election periods in advanced economies, although the two assassination attempts on former US President Donald Trump are a rather unusual exception. We hope to see a peaceful transfer of power to the victorious candidate, without incident. This was witnessed in 2015 and 2019, when there was an orderly and peaceful transition following the PEs.
The winning candidate must take on several major challenges from Day One including economic revival, law and order, governance, the elimination of corruption, recovery of stolen assets, foreign policy and the national question, though not necessarily in that order. None of this is going to be easy or straightforward.
Economic rejuvenation and emancipation alone might take several years, if not decades. This is indeed why some experts say Sri Lanka can only achieve economic freedom (i.e. free of foreign debt) by 2048, the year that Sri Lanka will mark 100 years of Independence from Britain. Many of those alive today will not be around to see that, but that is the whole point of economic rejuvenation – it is mainly the next generation that will benefit from the policies that we adopt today.
Tackling corruption is equally important. It is no secret that Sri Lanka’s economic development has been hampered by unbridled corruption from the highest levels in power to the lowest strata in society. The Anti-Corruption Act (ACA) is a good place to start, but action should be taken against every politician or public official responsible for the 2022 economic debacle and other acts of documented corruption without considering their stature or political links. The recovery of the funds (said to run into billions of dollars) illegally parked abroad by politicians and businessmen must begin no sooner a new administration is sworn in. The authorities should work closely with the World Bank’s Stolen Assets Recovery (STAR) program in this regard. This will be no walk in the park, given the complexity of the stolen money trail that includes myriad shell companies, secret numbered accounts and even countries that want to protect their corrupt “stolen assets” clientele.
Law and order, as well as good governance, must also be a priority for the new President. There simply cannot be one set of laws for the ordinary people and another for the privileged including politicians. This is a country where a young girl was sent to prison for stealing three coconuts, while a mega swindler walked free by paying a Rs.2,000 fine. Such anomalies should not happen again. The law must apply equally to all, regardless of rank, stature and political affiliation. In fact, this is why Western countries have prospered in the first place.
Foreign policy is another plank that should not be neglected. Finding a balance between the competing geopolitical interests of regional and even global players will certainly be a tough task. Sri Lanka should pursue a Non-Aligned or neutral foreign policy without taking any sides. The new President and the subsequent Government must also address the human rights imbroglio that Sri Lanka unfortunately finds itself in, year after year in Geneva. We should have a wider dialogue with the international community on addressing accountability and human rights concerns arising from the final days of the War in 2009.
Whoever wins, Sri Lanka begins a totally new chapter today. Achieving reconciliation and forging a truly Sri Lankan identity remain a prime challenge for the new leader. Achieving such unity across ethnic, religious and political lines will be the ultimate triumph.
