There is a saying, “When wild boars fight, it’s a royal feast for the jungle fowl.” This saying becomes clearer when considering the election bets in Ratnapura alongside the excitement of the Presidential election. While Presidential candidates fought their final battle, those involved in election betting in Ratnapura took their game to another level.
Betting during election time is not something new. In the past, election bets involved either cutting one’s hair, jumping into a pond, or walking around the village wearing only an undergarment in the losing party’s colour and a headband in the winning party’s colour.
However, as time went on, these betting methods evolved, and cash bets became the norm, starting with small amounts like Rs. 10, 20 or 100. But the election bets we are discussing in Ratnapura had transformed into a form of gambling.
Highest value
Nimal Mudalali
Some of the election bets in Ratnapura had reached prices in the range of millions of rupees. According to reliable sources, the highest value for a bet this time had been around Rs. 60 million. These bets are not mere casual wagers.
Both parties involved in the bets were required to deposit the agreed amount in legal currency.
The money is then deposited with a trusted individual, who earns a 5 percent commission from the winnings for safeguarding the funds.
While simple election bets are common in Ratnapura, there are also more complex election wagers in play. For these, organised groups prepare betting slips similar to race tickets and sell them at various price points.
Nimal Mudalali of Ratnapura is eager to share information about election bets. This is not only due to the knowledge he had gained over the years about the election bets held under the mango tree in Ratnapura but also because of the election history he has gathered. Nimal Mudalali, well-informed about the election bets in Ratnapura, was found near the gem market, under the mango tree.
Big bets
“I’m not directly involved in this, but I can clearly see that election betting in Ratnapura is more active than ever. After all, it’s been a long time since we had an election. And people’s interest has also increased. That’s why there are more bets. Just yesterday morning, I heard about a Rs. 60 million bet. There was also a Rs. 10 million bet from Elahera. Many of the bets were over Rs. 1 million. Everyone is highly interested in these election bets.”
“There are not only big bets like those but also smaller ones, right? There are competitions to guess the number of votes and predict the winning candidate, right?” I asked, steering Nimal Mudalali’s conversation in a different direction.
“Yes, yes, there are many ways to place these kinds of bets. Let me show you one of the slips.
Look at this slip, here it’s labelled with symbols A, B, C, D. In the first table, there’s Candidate A with an estimated number of votes expected to be won per electorate. One box showed the number of electorates in the Ratnapura district.
Another table showed electorates from selected districts. The number of votes each candidate is expected to win can be marked either exactly or approximately, and prizes are given for correct guesses. The value of the prize is marked on the ticket itself. Those who make these guesses have to pay the value indicated on the betting slip.”
The prize money for the competition slips is determined based on the value of the slip. Although a slip may be priced at Rs. 2,000 or Rs. 5,000, the prize won could sometimes exceed Rs. 100,000. Many such competition slips have already been distributed. There are also many people collecting them. Filling out these slips requires a good amount of knowledge.
Look at this slip: it includes Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Matara, Hambantota, and the Nuwara Eliya districts. The person filling out this slip needs to have a solid understanding of past election results as well. It takes a lot of effort to fill in these slips correctly.
No one is going to place a bet of Rs. 4,000–5,000 based on a hunch. This is like a calculated bet, where you have to carefully consider the possibilities. I’ve only shown you one slip. Many such slips are circulating in the town right now. By Friday evening, all bets were finalised, and these slips were handed over to the custodians, along with the money.”
Betting slips
After bidding farewell to Nimal Mudalali, I headed from under the mango tree to Demuwawatha Road. Even though Demuwawatha Road is a gem market, these days the main topic of conversation was on election betting. I encountered several people distributing betting slips as described by Nimal Mudalali. After fulfilling several conditions, I was allowed to examine a few of the marked slips here and there.
When examining the way some of the slips had been filled out, it became clear that these individuals were not merely casual bettors, but rather experts in election analysis. The manner in which they had predicted the number of votes each candidate from various parties could obtain, similar to the votes received by candidates in previous Presidential elections, was astonishing.
These predictions were made in a way that even seasoned election analysts might find difficult. In some constituencies, the leading candidate was not the one expected to be ahead, and in other districts, the numbers were calculated based on factors such as poverty and wealth. Some had even made predictions based on ethnicity and religion.
Looking at this information, it was evident that those involved in the Ratnapura election bets were not just ordinary gamblers. By carefully analysing three or four of these slips, one can understand who was likely to win and who will come out on top—not through guesswork, but with clear insight.
The election bets in Ratnapura were not just casual wagers; they also provided a detailed political analysis. It seemed that hidden money was being brought to light through these election bets. By the afternoon today, the outcomes of these bets — wins and losses — will be decided on.
There may be people who lose hundreds of thousands of rupees, just as there will be others who win hundreds of thousands or even millions of rupees, without any need for minor or door-to-door bets.
Translated by Sachitra Mahendra
