Today, when you probably read this column, the Presidential election results are either trickling in or have been released for the most part. Either way, it would probably be rather clear by the time you read this, who has won the Presidency, and who would govern us in the next five years, at least.
The new President would not have much time to size up the situation. Though there has been a recovery of sorts, the country is still not out of the woods. The new President – be he a new face or the former worthy elected for another term – would have to deal with external actors, particularly the IMF.
This election would probably bring the events stemming from the aragalaya to closure, at long last. The newly elected President would be an elected President, whereas the previous incumbent was selected by Parliament. The elected President would doubtless come to power with a mandate to primarily address the economy, which remains the key issue after the financial meltdown and the debt default.
It’s incontrovertible, therefore, that economic policy would have to be front and centre in terms of policy, for the gentleman elected President today. He would have to move a mountain to deliver, because there are a myriad of problems to address in this regard.
Our external-debt issues need far more clarity than what obtains today. Our debt-restructuring has been made contingent on certain conditions which our lenders have opined, are close to being breached, partially because of what could be called election-imperatives.
These new issues have to be addressed. However, during the election campaign there has been some thrust and parry among party leaders and other key players about how the individual party manifestos should be honoured. Some party leaders made claims about extending various tax concessions which are moves that would be contingent upon raising extra revenue. Those who espoused such policies, have said that they have a plan to increase revenue by cutting waste and increasing productivity in certain identified areas.
ADJUSTMENTS
Easier said than done? Perhaps, if the candidate of one of those parties that made these promises has been elected President this morning, the people would soon ascertain in the near future how the pledges made would be honoured. Extraordinary dedication, and solid discipline would be required to achieve these stated goals.
Moreover, the international fallout from such policies, as is bound to materialise, should have to be addressed and neutralised. This requires certain skills of diplomacy and a measure of chutzpah, even. That’s because the lending-agencies would not necessarily see the concessional policy measures such as certain tax-cuts as compatible with the debt-reduction plan that they have essentially prescribed, though it’s a prescription that has been handed down by creditors after protracted negotiations with the Government.
If Ranil Wickremesinghe is elected President today, business would react with some confidence about the future, whereas if there is a new Government, it stands to reason that its leadership would have to prove itself, and earn the confidence of the business community and of our international interlocutors.
After that is done, it would be a journey. For that matter, it would be a journey even if the former President has been re-elected. The economy has been progressing in a certain direction, but it is clear that after the election held yesterday, certain adjustments have to be made.
It’s essentially because the people of this country have demanded these adjustments. It’s why today’s elected candidate would have to bend over backwards to accommodate the concessions that were promised this election season.
No matter who is elected, any one of them would have to deliver, for the simple reason that they would need the nation secured from unrest, before any plans to govern are followed through. Such an atmosphere of security may elude them, if certain promised concessions are not forthcoming.
But our creditors are not necessarily on the same page as far as such ostensibly pro-people measures are concerned. Above all, any new dispensation would have to ensure that there is no relapse of the 2022 malady, which was default and collapse. If they have to keep concessions to a minimum and sort of renege on some of their declared policy in order to keep the economy on an even-keel, it would have to be done. It’s why it is commonly said that leaders campaign in poetry, and govern in prose.
Any new Government would have to seek innovative methods at revenue generation, but when options are limited sometimes, at least initially, there isn’t much that could be done except fallback on the traditional revenue streams such as tourism. Some candidates have said that they have detailed plans to increase manifold, the current earnings from tourism.
They have said that they would seek to lengthen duration of stay of the average tourist by offering a plethora of experiences and attractions that would engage travellers to this country. These visions sound very exciting in theory, but may be somewhat more difficult to put into practice. In order to do so the policymakers and the executives in charge of policy implementation would have to show exemplary skill in marshalling Human Resources, and encouraging innovation.
Is doing so, too tall an order, making chances of success somewhat remote? No, but hopes, dreams and rhetoric alone wouldn’t do it. This is why the task of the voter ends today and the burdens of the elected start at the precise moment whoever is President-elect takes oaths, presumably tomorrow evening. A manifesto is meant to be honoured, and dishonoured only in extraordinary circumstances. It is not envisaged that anyone elected would renege on election promises in this context.
SECULARISM
But, whether they could deliver on their pledges in the long-term would depend on how far these promises were tenable. In his inaugural address, whoever is elected today would have to assure voters that a better life as promised can be delivered without default or economic collapse having to be the price that’s paid in exchange.
Obviously concessions delivered, if they are going to point to the direction of default, would be worthless. Any temporary joy that voters would get out of concessions eked out by way of election promises would be utterly meaningless, and would mock the plight of the voters further, if adjustments lead to calamity rather than sustainable redemption.
Therefore, the task of whoever is elected today, is unenviable. Does that mean no promise can be delivered on, and that Sri Lankans are forever condemned to suffer the consequences of the 2022 meltdown, irrespective of who is elected? No, absolutely not, as the person that’s chosen was given the job precisely because he has promised to navigate the debt-issue while delivering on a better life. For the person taking charge, it would seem like a bargain made in hell, but the people have reposed faith in leaders who said they have a plan, no matter how daunting the challenge.
issues
Besides that, there are other issues that are bound to surface, in the areas of governance, law-making and perhaps even Constitution making. It’s always difficult to disturb the status quo, no matter how genuine the intentions are of the leadership. New solutions could open a can of worms with regard to vexed issues such as ethnic amity and secularism, or ideas associated with state-religion, or religion accorded the foremost place by the State.
Addressing these issues necessarily means that those who chance their arm on new policy would have to navigate rather choppy waters. There are still more issues such as post-war reconciliation and related matters that the international community or sections of it continue to have their eyes peeled on.
But, the economic problems faced by the people offer a unique challenge. No doubt they shaped the outcome of the just concluded election too, and by now, the people would know exactly how. Hopefully, this election would bring closure to those vexed economic concerns in particular, and help us turn the page onto a new chapter in our journey as a substantially challenged yet independent and sovereign nation.
