In a candid conversation with former MP Eran Wickramaratne of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the Sunday Observer discusses the dynamics of Sri Lanka’s current political landscape.
With the recent election outcome and ongoing national challenges, Wickramaratne sheds light on why the SJB faced a decline in voter support, the rise of the National People’s Power (NPP), and the shifting demands of the electorate. He offers a thoughtful analysis of the SJB’s strategies moving forward, addresses concerns over Sajith Premadasa’s leadership, and comments on the pressing issues of governance, economy, and foreign policy that will define the next phase of Sri Lanka’s political journey.
Q: Sajith Premadasa secured 5.5 million votes at the 2019 Presidential election, but this time, he only managed to gather 4.3 million. Despite being the Opposition Leader during significant crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy, why hasn’t he been able to galvanise even his former voter base?
A: This was the first time that Sri Lanka had a three-party race at a Presidential election. Historically, it was always a two-party contest. Unfortunately, the third candidate in this race drew from a similar voter base, which resulted in a split of votes. Had there not been a third party, I believe Sajith Premadasa would have won by a significant majority.
Another factor was the trust certain voter groups had placed in the National People’s Power (NPP). For example, although we were not responsible for the Easter Sunday bombings and had laid out a comprehensive plan to achieve justice, many votes shifted to the NPP. This suggests that it was largely a matter of trust.
We may not also have fully grasped what people truly wanted. While the country was bankrupt and we focused on economic factors, people were demanding a systemic change, justice, and anti-corruption. Floating votes went in another direction because we were caught up in traditional thinking, while voters were looking for more radical change.
Q: The SJB received 2.7 million votes at the last parliamentary election, a drop from the 5.5 million it gained at the previous Presidential election. Now, with a further loss of 1.2 million votes at this Presidential election, do you think the party can still secure 2.7 million at the upcoming parliamentary election, or do you foresee a further decline?
A: I believe we will gain more votes at the upcoming parliamentary election. The 2.7 million votes we received at the last election represent our base. We missed out on the floating votes at that election, but this time we expect to attract voters from the former President’s voter base. Many of them believed his presence was better for stability, particularly with the IMF and economic factors. But that’s in the past. A lot of those voters also marked Sajith Premadasa as their second preference. Now, the alternative for those voters, as they move away from the NPP, is the SJB.
Q: Sajith Premadasa is on course to lose his fourth consecutive election as party leader. Even Ranil Wickremesinghe avoided consecutive Presidential election defeats by presenting alternative candidates. What are Sajith Premadasa’s long-term plans?
A: Wickremesinghe presenting an alternative candidate wasn’t necessarily a positive for him. He should have allowed the party to decide who in the party would be most suitable for contesting. After Independence, the UNP was a governing party, but in the past 50 years, it hasn’t managed to get a President elected. Some soul-searching is needed to answer why. There’s a lack of internal democracy in the party.
As for the SJB, with an election imminent, we have analysed our strengths and weaknesses. It was unanimously decided that Sajith Premadasa must continue to lead. If we form a Government, he will be our leader. We will work cooperatively with the elected President, and we already agree on several good policies such as the rule of law, anti-corruption, transparency, and justice.
There could be policy gaps in certain areas, such as education. We believe that the education system must be more liberalised and that everyone should have access to it. Education needs to be open and focused on creating more opportunities. If the NPP can convince their core partner, the JVP — who has opposed foreign universities and open education for 50 years — that these changes are necessary, they will have our support. Regarding economic policies, if they choose to work with the IMF, it’s commendable. They’ll need to push ahead with debt restructuring, and SOE reforms must happen without using populist rhetoric such as “selling the country.”
Q: Do you see Sajith Premadasa as a viable Presidential candidate for the next election?
A: We’ve just come out of an election, and we are focused on moving forward. However, since you’ve asked about the Presidential candidate, I’d like to mention about the Presidential system itself. The JVP has always opposed the Executive Presidency since its inception, and they’ve recently said that they want to abolish it. We fully support this move. If they bring a motion to abolish the Executive Presidency, the SJB will vote for it, not just with one hand, but with both hands raised. The abolition of the Executive Presidency and parliamentary reform under the Constitution will be a key focus for us.
When we form a Government, we’ll work closely with the new President to push for these Constitutional reforms.
Q: What do you think will be the NPP’s biggest challenges over the next 12 months?
A: One of their biggest challenges will be delivering on their promises around the rule of law and anti-corruption. The public’s expectations are very high, and the NPP will need to act quickly. Delays and excuses won’t be acceptable. The second challenge will be the economy. They need to focus on debt reform and come to an agreement with ISB holders. Our credit ratings are already falling, and they will need to deliver on the benchmarks of the IMF program.
Public sector reform will also be a significant challenge. For 50 years, the JVP has opposed such reforms. I hope the NPP members will prevail over the JVP’s traditional stance. The public sector must be made more efficient, and that will require technology, investment, and a reduction in workforce numbers. Direct foreign investment is also essential. In the past, this has been resisted with rhetoric about “selling the country,” but we all hope that such thinking is behind us.
Q: With the conflicts currently unfolding in the Middle East, how do you anticipate they will impact Sri Lanka’s economy?
A: It’s too early to predict the full extent of the impact, but we will undoubtedly feel the effects. Global stability is critical for us, especially as we depend on particular exports. Conflicts in the Middle East could create significant challenges since some of our key markets, especially for tea and value-added goods, are in that region. Foreign expenditure is also heavily tied to oil prices, and any instability in oil prices could have serious repercussions on our economy. If supply is restricted and prices spike, it could severely strain us. We can only hope for a swift resolution to the conflict through negotiations, which would prevent further economic disruption.
Q: The NPP has said that Arjuna Mahendran could be extradited to Sri Lanka for questioning. Based on your knowledge, is this possible?
A: I can’t comment on one specific individual. If the judiciary of this country determines that someone should be extradited, then it is not a decision for the NPP or any political party to make. We would also oppose any form of political victimisation. However, if the judiciary deems it necessary for someone to be represented here for questioning, then that process should follow the appropriate legal channels.
