Donald Trump is back in the saddle in the United States. A special comment by this writer on the events that propelled him to power and the expected impact of his ascendancy, would be carried on Wednesday, the 13th in the Daily News. Meanwhile, issues at home with parliamentary elections in the country this week, are definitely of more immediate import.
The post-election political discourse is also a pre-election political discourse. What could possibly not go wrong between two volatile election outings in this country?
Strangely, nothing seems to be going wrong, and that’s almost too good to be true. It’s a period in waiting, in which people have for the most part settled for certain expectations. The losers at the Presidential election seem to be resigned to the fact that they would at best end up in opposition.
The governing style so far seems to be an understated one. The new dispensation is not given to grand pronouncements it seems, and is about no drama. No-drama was how President Obama was described during his campaign and incumbency phases as a formidable U.S politician.
No-drama Anura and no-drama Cabinet seems to be the best way to describe what is, after all, an interim arrangement at present. But this interim phase is far more momentous than the governing style would make us believe.
Three Cabinet ministers are running a country in transition, and are also ready to see the nation through a vital General election. That’s as if thunder, lightning and a tsunami are all happening at the same time.
There is a transition within a transition. First there is a transition from the Wickremesinghe Government to the Dissanayake Government. But beneath that is the expected transition from the three-member Cabinet to a Government comprised of whoever is chosen from the winning party, at this week’s election.
STINGING
Theoretically, there could be a cohabitation arrangement after Thursday. But the likelihood of that is as remote as a black swan event between now and Election Day this week. The aura of resignation rents the air in the Opposition camp. Even the campaign photograph of the Prime Ministerial candidate of what is expected to be the main opposition party seems to have caught the mood. Sajith Premadasa is seen to be looking out of the page in the photograph, in a distant gaze as if he is there and not quite there at the same time.
Apt indeed. He is there in the race and not in it. He seems to have nothing to say expect that he expects people would vote for him, and perhaps his party, though that too remains largely unsaid at present. What would be the best term to describe the Opposition mood? Resignation alone doesn’t seem to capture the exact mood though it is somewhat on point. A case of shell-shock seems to be more like it.
Even though a NPP victory was not at all improbable before the Presidential election and everyone in the Opposition would have known that, when a defeat is reality, it sinks in. Hence the shell shock. The SJB seems searching for ways to react. On top of it, the curse of curses probably in their view, a general election was called immediately after their stinging loss.
Have some mercy, Mr. Premadasa must be telling the deities. But there isn’t any respite. Even as they lick their wounds, the Opposition has to prepare for what looks almost certain to be another defeat. That’s not pleasant.
The NPP seems to be getting about their demolition job of the political opponents with clinical precision. Are they enjoying it? That would be cruel, but in politics there is no time for a humanitarian ceasefire, if it can be avoided.
The calm we see now before the general election is, therefore, enforced. It is not as if any party in the Opposition wants it this way, but they do not know how else to react to this transition within a transition.
What’s also galling to the Opposition, truth be told, is probably the fact that the three-member Government is going about things as if they were here all along and had all the prior experience. Not only have they hit the ground running, they don’t seem to have put a foot in the wrong place.
But there are many storms in the teacup and much is being said on a daily basis to roil the sedate atmosphere between the two elections. TV and social media are full of it. Pointed barbs are aimed at the governing triumvirate, and the objective seems to be to put the three off their stride and make them panic.
But nothing seems to stick. Those who aren’t generous may call it a honeymoon but if it is a honeymoon the NPP will take it, why not?
If it is a honeymoon, it’s not the Opposition that’s granting them that. Though the barbs aimed at the NPP have been clumsy, they have been aimed with venomous intent. So no, there is no honeymoon intended by the NPP’s opponents. But perhaps, the people want it to be a honeymoon, which is not to take away from the professional performance of the NPP that was referred to earlier, the no-drama preternatural calm, exuded by the members of the mini-Cabinet.
The Opposition’s intent to fling the proverbial grenade and watch the Government scatter has been very real. Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe is going to the extent of saying he wouldn’t hesitate to bring down the Government. The statement, though calculated to annoy, hardly registered a blip in the radar.
BROADSIDES
Mostly, the intention to lunge and low-tackle has been mere play-acting because as stated earlier, the defeated Opposition doesn’t quite know how to react and are experimenting with theatrics. They seek to respond to the Government’s no-drama with some manufactured drama that they hope would cause some disturbance and spoil the dual-transition that is taking place.
But, the theatrical performance is far too stilted. There is a forced quality to it all, especially those broadsides aimed at the Government allegedly printing money.
There is surely a difference between printing money and infusing reserve cash into the system? These are routine housekeeping tasks that any Government has to deal with, and to paint this as some sort of major calamity is not merely disingenuous, but is smacking of some desperation as well.
None of the above observations means that the NPP Government would be without challenges. The tough decisions, by and large, would come after the two transitions are completed and so no premature judgment is being made about the Government’s performance.
But there is a marked contrast between the Gotabaya Government and this three-member administration, even though, of course, any comparison with that failed enterprise would be to set the bar very low.
But even Ranil Wickremesinghe was more exhibitionist in his approach when he took over as President no doubt at a rather precarious juncture. His governing style was to intentionally make a song and a dance about everything he did, and he was comfortable with that.
But, the people seemed to have known it would all be in passing, which is why they were not too judgmental about this style. However, such a style is not necessary for the ruling NPP now, and moreover could be a self-inflicted distraction.
Most Governments including the last one act as if image is not everything, it’s the only thing. This dispensation may be opting for an understated image. i.e: no-drama.
Note that the understated image is also an image. But it’s hard to say if it’s a cultivated image or a natural reflection of the desire of the new leadership to get on with the job without being conspicuous.
Perhaps, it is also the fact that there is an election on the cards. When there is electioneering to do, the Government could still re-live its tried and tested role as a (former) Oppositional force. But once the Parliamentary elections are done and dusted, there would be no more reverting back to this default Opposition-mode. It could be said, fairly, that until then this Government would be, by and large, untested.
But if the dual-transition of the current phase can be considered some sort of dress rehearsal for the eventual role that would come after this week’s elections, it can be said this honeymoon phase offers a snapshot of the mettle that the Opposition would have to deal with, in the years to come.
