It would not be incorrect to say that the world runs on oil or variations of it. Still, only around 40 million of the 1.4 billion vehicles on the road worldwide run on battery electric power. No need to guess that the rest runs on gasoline (petrol) and diesel. All aircraft and helicopters run on jet fuel, a type of Kerosene known as A-1. And how about ships, boats and almost every other type of vehicle – they all run on oil, also referred to as “fossil fuel” because it is a mixture of hydrocarbons that formed from the remains of plants and animals that lived millions of years ago.
We also cannot forget that power plants, generators and many stationary machines also run on oil. Coal and Natural Gas – Compressed or Liquefied – are also varieties of fossil fuel. Plastics, lubricants and many other pollution causing substances are also derived from fossil fuel.
We pen these words as COP29 deliberations are getting under way in Baku in Azerbaijan, one of the world’s leading producers of fossil fuel. Last year, it was held in another such country – the United Arab Emirates, where the delegates promised to phase out oil exploration, extraction and use. But fast forward one year and the world is actually producing more oil than ever before.
World oil production in 2023 averaged 81,804,000 barrels per day. Approximately 72 percent of world oil production came from the top ten – USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iraq, China, Iran, Brazil, UAE and Kuwait. Azerbaijan, incidentally, is in the 25th place. On the other hand, the world consumes approximately 105 million barrels of oil per day, including biofuels. The United States is the world’s largest oil consumer, using around 21 million barrels per day. China is the second largest consumer, using about 16 million barrels per day, and the European Union (EU) is third, using about 15 million barrels per day.
The rise of Far-Right parties worldwide has given an impetus for crude oil production at an expedited rate. These parties and their leaders generally do not believe in Climate Change – that man-made fossil fuels are driving up temperatures around the world which could even make the planet uninhabitable by around 2150.
In fact, their motto is “Drill Baby Drill”, made famous by incoming and former US President Donald Trump, in reference to his plans to expand offshore and ground oil drilling in the US. Never mind that the US is producing more oil now than at any other period in history and is the world’s leading producer of oil by a considerable margin. The US also has huge untapped reserves, not to mention the Federal Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the United States under the international energy program.
Oil stocks
The federally-owned oil stocks are stored in huge underground salt caverns at four sites along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. The sheer size of the SPR (an authorised storage capacity of 714 million barrels) makes it a significant deterrent to oil import cutoffs and a key tool in foreign policy, according to the US Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response.
An electric vehicle being charged
Trump, a Climate Change sceptic, wants to expand oil exploration and drilling at the expense of, or in addition to, Renewable Energy, including through the controversial practice of fracking or hydraulic fracturing, a process that involves injecting a high-pressure mixture of water, sand, and chemicals into the Earth to extract oil and natural gas from shale and other tight rock formations. Environmentalists fear that the incoming US Government might even target environmentally sensitive areas in States such as Alaska for oil prospecting and extraction.
Sri Lanka, which has been hunting for oil for many decades, is yet to strike it. But surveys have revealed the presence of oil and Natural Gas in some off shore areas. The process of extracting oil is not an easy one by any means – a commercial oil well or rig can take more than a decade to come online. If we strike oil now, commercial extraction could be many years away, by which oil may have lost its sheen, literally, with attempts to move away from our almost 100 percent dependency on this “liquid gold”.
This is one reason why there is a mad rush to get the oil that remains on the ground and in offshore locations as quickly as possible. The other reason is oil is a finite resource that is going to run out sooner rather than later. As of 2022, the world’s proven oil reserves were estimated to be around 1,757 billion barrels. Experts predict that the world will run out of oil from known reserves in about 47-50 years and if unused reserves are called into play, may last another 30 more years at the current rates of consumption. But by whatever measure, crude oil will be gone within the next 100 years.
Coal is likely to last for around 150 more years at current rates of consumption. It is, however, likely that the demand for coal will go down over the next few years as most countries close their coal power plants and opt for Renewable or Nuclear Energy via Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) that can generate about 300 MW each. Sri Lanka might also opt for this path with foreign assistance. Natural gas might probably last until the turn of the century, but that’s about it. In other words, all types of fossil fuel are likely to run out by around 2200. The world will probably have moved to much better alternatives by that time, with technological advances.
One probable alternative is synthetic or biological fuel, which is similar to fossil fuel. In most cases, there is no need to modify the engine or other apparatus that accepts the oil. This will obviate the need to throw away existing machinery and vehicles. The world of aviation is already abuzz with talk of wider adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), made from renewable feedstocks, such as waste oils, fats, and greases. Alcohols such as ethanol and iso-butanol are also converted into SAF by removing oxygen and linking the molecules together. One major advantage is that SAF is chemically similar to traditional jet fuel, but it reduces carbon emissions by as much as 70 percent over the fuel’s lifecycle.
Aviation industry
SAF currently makes up less than one percent of the fuel used in the aviation industry, but there is a pressing need to find greener fuel solutions as 2.5 percent of global Carbon Dioxide emissions come from aviation. SAF is gaining momentum though, with several companies supplying it to airlines worldwide. Most of the current crop of plane engines can already take in SAF, but it is still much more expensive than normal jet fuel. However, new developments might bring costs down – scientists have recently discovered how to convert wastewater into biofuel and SAF. Obviously, if SAF or other synthetic fuels can be modified for use in automobiles, the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) might live on for a few decades more, instead of being phased out by 2040 or so.
Still, the best alternative is to give up on fossil fuels and other liquid fuels altogether over the next few decades. This is especially important for countries such as Sri Lanka which are net importers of oil. Sri Lanka’s annual oil import bill hovers around US$ 5 to 6 billion, about the same as its earnings from expatriate remittances or tourism. Surely, this is untenable in the long term for a developing country saddled with foreign debts amounting to US$ 51 billion.
This is one reason why the incoming Government should prioritise Renewable Energy projects. It should stick to the original goal of getting at least 70 percent of the country’s power capacity from Renewable sources such as Solar and Wind by 2030. This is not impossible at all if Sri Lanka gets the financing right – some developed and even some developing nations can already generate 100 percent of their electricity on demand from Renewables, at least for a few hours at a time.
This has to be mainly solar and wind, as Sri Lanka has probably exhausted its hydropower potential. Geothermal and ocean wave energy too could probably be very expensive to extract. SMRs, which can cost anything from US$ 500 million to US$ 3 billion per unit depending on the size and power output, will be out of reach of Sri Lanka unless they are completely funded by donor nations.
It is also imperative that we adopt electric cars sooner rather than later. When Sri Lanka lifts its vehicle import ban in February 2025, it should prioritise the import of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and local assemblers of vehicles should also be encouraged to ditch their gasoline cars and switch to BEVs. The Government vehicle fleet should become electric. Sri Lanka should import at least 500 electric buses for use initially in the Western Province, as pledged in several previous national budgets.
Fossil fuel vehicles
The three-wheeler market is saturated, so it is better to leave that category out altogether, electric or petrol. Moving to BEVs will give a head start to Sri Lanka’s plans to phase out fossil fuel vehicles from 2035. However, lest every electric car owner plugs into the country’s thermal-powered national grid, it will negate the whole point of having electric cars. Instead, the use of solar powered fast chargers should be encouraged and concessions given for their installation.
In the meantime, there are simple steps that we can take to bring the country’s fuel bill down. The next time you go to the junction to buy this newspaper, walk instead of taking the car. Try to use public transport whenever possible. Turn off working lights, ACs and fans in empty rooms. Discard all incandescent bulbs and install LED lights. Except for the last one, most of these steps do not cost any money at all and will actually save money, both for the consumer and the country as a whole.
