The National People’s Power’s (NPP) victory in the November 14 General Elections (GE) — it secured 61 percent of the vote and 159 of 225 seats in Parliament — is a remarkable performance in Sri Lanka’s history of electoral politics.
In Jaffna in the island’s Northern Province (NP), the NPP’s performance was particularly significant as it secured the highest number of votes as a single party. Its ability to outperform regional parties in Jaffna, Trincomalee, Vanni and Ampara by winning three of the six seats is commendable since Southern-based political parties have historically found it challenging to make inroads in these minority-dominated districts.
Jaffna, which is predominantly inhabited by Tamil communities, has been central to Sri Lanka’s ethnic tensions and political movements. It was a focal point of the protracted civil war as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) sought to establish an independent Tamil state in the region. It continues to be a region of significant political and cultural importance.
The NPP’s victory in Jaffna, Vanni and other minority-dominated districts relegated traditional Tamil parties to second or third place. Several senior Tamil politicians such as M.A. Sumanthiran, Douglas Devananda, Angajan Ramanathan, Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan, Dharmalingam Siddharthan and Suresh Premachandran were among those unseated. It was only in Batticaloa that the traditional Tamil parties performed better than the NPP did.
Examining the new Government’s electoral gains under the leadership of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in predominately minority areas is imperative to situate its historic victory in the context of wider trends of rejection of elite parties, erosion of the appeal of Tamil nationalist politics and changing priorities among locals.
Disenchantment with mainstream politics
Shortly after the GE, researcher Harindra Dassanyake posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the NPP has managed to overcome “ethnicised electoral borders”. Conversations with locals in Jaffna on their perceptions of the NPP Government reiterate this argument. Explaining the NPP’s dismal performance in the North in the Presidential Election (PE) on September 21, most people we spoke to said they were unaware of the NPP and its policies and lacked confidence in it.
However, they decided to give the new administration a chance when Dissanayake won the PE and assumed political power. In the weeks after his victory, President Dissanayake undertook several positive measures such as the closure of some Army camps and the release of land occupied by the Security Forces.
While the Sinhalese-dominated South experienced a process of disenchantment with elite politics, the North, primarily Jaffna, faced a similar trend of frustration with and fragmentation of traditional Tamil parties.
Many Northerners were fed up with the entrenched power structures dominated by the region’s elite players and their not taking concerted measures to improve the people’s livelihoods. The wide array of political parties and candidates, including those established newly, also contributed to the fragmentation of the Tamil vote and the weakening of their political position in the national arena.
Political infighting that followed the demise of veteran Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) leader R. Sampanthan in June 2024 played a role too. Many Tamils had become increasingly frustrated with traditional Tamil parties, their lack of commitment to electoral promises and excessive attention paid to power devolution and war-time accountability.
Many Tamil leaders had long exploited ethnic cleavages to consolidate and maintain political power over addressing bread-and-butter issues such as the high Cost of Living (COL), unemployment and increasing household debt. One local expressed frustration with the high COL, particularly food and transportation expenses that have surged after the Covid-19 pandemic. Many feel that a big portion of their salaries simply goes towards covering these costs.
Several Jaffna residents said that land-related issues are a major problem. However, only a few local actors made efforts to address issues of land appropriation and lack of access to land, and to reduce the precarity of rural communities. The easy availability of narcotics and addiction to drugs in some parts of Jaffna has also become a pressing problem. It is not uncommon to find drugs such as marijuana in some schools. One resident also shared the struggles during the pandemic, such as the lack of an income for daily wage earners, lack of financial and material support from the State and challenges to transition towards organic farming.
Key position in Northern Province
In an article in The Diplomat, Uditha Devapriya, an analyst at Factum, an Asia-Pacific think tank, said that although an anti-incumbency sentiment did contribute to the NPP’s victory, this factor alone does not explain how the party managed to secure the trust of citizens over other parties. For a long time, the ITAK was the dominant party that represented the political interests of Sri Lankan Tamils and managed to maintain its key position in the Northern Province at the 2020 GE.
However, there is now a new generation of citizens and politicians in the Tamil polity, who have less attachment to themes of the 13th Amendment and devolution of power and have chosen to support broader-based issues such as economic inequality, corruption, and governance, resonating with younger and marginalised voters. A resident of Jaffna said that people below 45 have little recollection of the civil war and may not give priority to political and constitutional issues.
In the recent GE, the Tamil political parties that advocated for issues such as devolution did not perform well. They are no longer the sole political representatives in Tamil politics. The Tamil polity has changed.
During the election campaign, the NPP said it would alter the political discourse on race relations and usher in social cohesion in a manner that does not further deepen ethnic divisions but rather unites the different communities. It presented itself as the agency of transformative change. Motivated by its increasing popularity, the party was aware that it had to go beyond its core vote base to consolidate broad-based support. Hence, it undertook measures to effectively engage with people at the grassroots such as setting up a permanent party office in Jaffna. NPP Member of Parliament Bimal Rathnayake conducted press conferences regularly and engaged trade union activists and local professionals.
The NPP initially struggled to expand its activities in Jaffna since the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), its core constituent, is known for its violent opposition to the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987, which provided Tamils with a measure of autonomy. However, the JVP’s reconfiguration as the NPP paid dividends and the latter was able to expand into the North between 2020 and 2024, with its JVP-linked baggage slowly fading away. The younger generation, which did not face the horrors of the war, was drawn towards the NPP’s policies, its campaign and promises.
In contrast, the United National Party (UNP), which has some support among the Tamils, has been in shambles at the grassroots for the last few years. The NPP stepped into this void through its wide-ranging organisational network.
Shifting priorities of key issues
While Jaffna continues to grapple with challenges such as militarisation, land rights, and resource allocation, the emergence of diverse political voices like the NPP signals a potential shift in the region’s political landscape. It is evident that ethnic politics without focusing on the material and economic struggles of citizens is unlikely to pay dividends going forward. There is a shift in attitudes on what issues are more pressing for people, especially the youth.
Much scholarly research has shown that the youth tend to be at the forefront of social movements and radical change by seeking a different reality. The recent analyses by commentators along with our conversations with the residents of Jaffna indicate that most people in urban areas are hopeful of the NPP Government’s capability to bring the much-needed change in the country, including in the North. Many are confident that the NPP would govern as a broad-based coalition and be different from its previous avatar, the JVP, and its association with Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism.
The departure of many veteran politicians from Parliament and the induction of new Parliamentarians indicates a strong desire for social, political and economic transformation across the country. Citizens despite their ethnicity, religion, gender, and age have united in unique and unprecedented ways by giving the NPP a mandate to fulfill its pledges. The changing voting patterns in the North also indicate that Tamils perceive the NPP as a serious political contender.
Post-war, Jaffna’s politics have revolved around rebuilding infrastructure, addressing war-related grievances, and advocating for Tamil rights and devolution of power. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a major political force in the region, has played a key role in these efforts, often navigating between the demands for greater autonomy and reconciliation with the Central Government. Despite some progress, issues such as land rights, militarisation, and equitable resource distribution continue to influence the political discourse in Jaffna.
Whether the NPP will fulfill its commitment to transformational change or relapse into the old political culture that impacted parties when they came to power remains to be seen. There is also a legacy of previous regimes securing a landslide victory only to head towards authoritarianism through unchecked, arbitrary and excessive power, which happened during the tenures of both former Presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
(The Diplomat)
Roshni Kapur is a Doctoral Student at the University of Ghent. She specialises in identity politics, transitional justice, post-war reconciliation, domestic and party politics of South Asia.
Dr. Diotima Chattoraj is a Research Fellow at the Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Department of Social and Health Sciences at James Cook University, Singapore.
