The sudden power outage that occurred last Sunday took the entire country by surprise. The only silver lining was that being a Sunday, commercial and industrial activity was at a minimum. It also occurred in daytime, when residential electricity consumption is generally low. Had it occurred on a weekday, the economic damage would have been far greater.
Many reasons were attributed to the blackout, from a monkey clash at the Panadura Substation to an imbalance caused by rooftop solar panels. However, the Power and Energy Ministry and the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) must get to the bottom of this ugly episode through a comprehensive probe. As yet, even sabotage cannot be ruled out, because several suspicious events of this nature have occurred in recent years.
It is important to ensure that the electricity flow is compartmentalised, so that an incident in one area can be localised to that area or zone, instead of cascading to the entire islandwide power distribution network. There is a question of robustness or resilience of the whole transmission network if a single event in one substation can trigger an islandwide blackout or if the solar output can cause a system imbalance.
Sri Lanka now has nearly 100 percent mains power penetration, barring some areas where it is physically impossible to build power pylons and poles due to hilly terrain or other factors. Solar power has been touted as a solution for such areas and indeed, there has been a considerable uptake in solar projects countrywide.
But we cannot ignore the elephant in the room – the Norochcholai coal power plant. There have been allegations that a previous Government cut corners during the construction and also in the coal procurement process, which had led to repeated breakdowns in the 900 MW power plant.
The stark reality is that coal fired power plants are on the way out in many countries, even though coal itself may last for another 150-200 years at the present rates of extraction and use. Coal is not very environmentally friendly, even with the use of scrubbers. Burning coal is a major contributor to Climate Change, releasing large amounts of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere and creating a Greenhouse effect. The decision to build a coal power plant was a flawed one in the first place. The Government has wisely decided not to permit any more coal power stations in line with the 2050 Net Zero goals.
But the biggest reason for ditching coal is that renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are becoming increasingly cheaper methods to produce electricity, making them more economically attractive. They are, of course, non-polluting, low maintenance and modular, which means they can be scaled up or down depending on the required specifications.
In fact, the authorities must not lose sight of the goal to produce 70 percent of the national grid capacity through renewable sources by 2030 and 100 percent (on demand) by 2040-2050. We are facing the present predicament of somewhat frequent regional and even islandwide power outages because the Power and Energy Ministry and the CEB did not have a proper “future plan” to address emerging power needs for many decades. It is also no secret that some holding the reins of power (literally) at the CEB had interests in private thermal power plants which are usually called in to supply power on an emergency basis during droughts and Norochcholai breakdowns. These elements have discouraged the proliferation of solar panels and wind turbines citing various excuses so that thermal power will always be in demand.
True, with hundreds of players, especially in the solar industry, there could be some companies that install inferior panels and inverters without following proper standards. The CEB, its subsidiary Lanka Electricity Company Limited (LECO) and the Sustainable Energy Development Authority must exercise due diligence to ensure that proper standards are met in the installation of solar panel systems. The CEB computer system has full Net Metering data and should be able to identify any imbalance or other issue before they crop up.
With the recent lifting of the ban on private car imports, there is a possibility that more Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) could enter the market. Even if 3,000 BEVs come in initially, they could create a problem for the mostly coal and thermal powered national grid if charged overnight everyday using the home power supply. This will also negate any benefit of using an electric car, since for all intents and purposes it will still be running on fossil power by proxy.
The Government should thus grant duty and tax concessions for the installation of publicly accessible DC superchargers and solar BEV chargers, which will reduce the load placed on the national grid. It is also advisable to ensure that only BEVs with a range of 400 km or more are permitted so that they need not be charged every day. However, this should be waived for electric motorcycles and scooters, which have very compact battery packs and draw a much smaller current.
There is no doubt that renewables are the future, with both oil and coal running out, the former perhaps even in our lifetime. It is also worth exploring the possibility of having one or two nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) since some countries have already pledged to assist Sri Lanka in this regard. But foreign funding will be essential, given that the cost of a SMR could range between US$ 50 million and US$ 3 billion depending on the size and power output.
But all renewable options should be on the table. In the meantime, the authorities should strive to increase the robustness of the existing power grid to make blackouts a thing of the past.
