Coconut prices are expected to decline in the coming months as the yields increase between March and June, Chairman of the Coconut Cultivation Board (CCB), Sunimal Jayakodi told the Sunday Observer.
He said that in 2024, only 2.6 billion coconuts were harvested, although Sri Lankan growers, on average, extract about three billion nuts a year. This drastic decrease in the yield led to the current high prices of coconuts, he said.
Jayakodi said the Coconut Research Institute (CRI) has forecast coconut harvests till the end of June. “Sri Lankan growers usually harvest coconuts once in two months and according to CRI calculations, the average bi-monthly yield is about 500 million nuts. However, in the January/February 2025 harvest period, the yield was only about 370 million nuts,” he said.
The yield would improve in March and April and about 480 million nuts are expected in these two months. About 560 million nuts will be produced in May and June 2025. “At that rate the strain of the demand is lower than it is now. The prices will go down then,” he said.
Reasons behind high prices
The decline in coconut production can be attributed to several factors. One of the primary reasons is the lack of fertiliser application over the past two years, coupled with the soaring cost of agricultural inputs. Former Chairman of the CCB, Saman Dewage said even if fertiliser is applied now, the results will only be visible in about two years, underscoring the long-term nature of the problem.
Extreme weather caused by climate change adversely affected coconut cultivation. High temperatures above 33 degrees Celsius reduced pollination, while drought defined as rainfall below 100 millimeters per month by the CRI, severely impact yields.
Another significant challenge is the destruction of coconuts by wild animals such as monkeys, and giant squirrels. Jayakodi estimates that around 100 million nuts are lost annually to these animals. Pests such as the red and black weevils further exacerbate the problem, especially for young coconut trees.
“You also need to replant coconuts to replace old trees. According to our calculations cultivators need to replant about 10 percent of the trees each year. It has become hard to protect new plants because of porcupines, wild boar and wild elephants. When coconut trees are young, we have to worry about red and black weevils.
It has become difficult to control these pests because agricultural inputs are extremely expensive,” he said.
Moreover the clearing of coconut lands over the past 30 years too have aggravated the shortages, Jayakodi said. A large number of coconut estates have also been bought by businessmen and professionals who buy the estates speculating that the price of land would increase, he said.
“They buy the estates for the land. Treating coconuts as a commercial crop requires consistent application of inputs, the cultivation of supplementary crops and the integration of some level of animal husbandry. The profitability of a coconut estate hinges on the effective combination of these three elements. To be viable, each hectare of coconut must generate at least three million rupees annually. Some estate owners have abandoned their operations after struggling to meet these financial targets,” he said.
While some advocate for coconut imports to address shortages, Jayakodi emphasised that Sri Lanka must remain cautious about this approach. He warned that past imports of coconuts and coconut products have inadvertently introduced invasive pests and diseases, such as whiteflies and the devastating Weligama Wilt. “About 15 years ago, the Weligama Wilt destroyed countless coconut trees,” he said. “We owe a debt of gratitude to our officials for containing this disease to a few southern regions through stringent measures. But these diseases and pests have also affected the yield.” The combination of these factors has created a perfect storm, leading to reduced yields and higher prices.
State of Sri Lanka’s coconut industry
While Sri Lanka has historically been a major producer and exporter of coconuts, years of neglect and under-investment have taken their toll. The average yield per hectare in Sri Lanka is about 7,000 nuts, which, while higher than the global average of 5,000 nuts, pales in comparison to India’s average of 9,000 nuts per hectare. Some Indian states even achieve yields of up to 15,000 nuts per hectare, thanks to advanced irrigation systems and substantial Government subsidies for fertiliser and other inputs, Dr. N. S. Aratchige, acting director of the CRI said.
Dr. Aratchige said Sri Lanka has the potential to produce 80 to 130 nuts per tree annually under optimal conditions. However, the current average is only 60 nuts per tree, highlighting the gap between the potential and the actual productivity.
“The CRI has recommended several varieties and on average a cultivator has the potential to extract about 80 nuts per year. Some of our hybrid varieties, when managed under recommended conditions, yield about 130 nuts per year,” she said.
Dr. Aratchige said India’s success stems from heavy subsidies for fertiliser and advanced irrigation systems. “For instance, Indian farmers using modern irrigation methods receive free electricity. In contrast, Sri Lanka’s high input costs and limited irrigation infrastructure restrict yields to just 60 nuts per tree”, he said.
Dr. Aratchige also addressed pest challenges, pointing out that while crop damage from mammals such as monkeys and wild boar is uniquely severe in Sri Lanka, pests such as coconut mites and red and black weevils pose similar threats globally.
Government initiatives to boost production
Recognising the urgency of the situation, the Government has introduced several prgrams to revitalise the coconut industry. One of the key initiatives is the reinvigoration of the Kapruka Clubs, which provide farmers with access to subsidised fertiliser, low-interest loans and technical support. Jayakodi said the Government has also allocated Rs1.4 billion to develop the coconut industry in 2025, a significant increase from Rs 550 million allocated in 2024. This funding will be used to establish a new Coconut Triangle in the North, pest and disease control, and the distribution of high-quality saplings.
To address the fertiliser crisis, the Government has secured 27,500 metric tons of Muriate of Potash (MOP) from the Russian Federation. This, combined with urea and phosphate, will be distributed to growers at a subsidised rate of Rs 4,000 per 50-kilogram bag, compared to the market price of Rs 9,000, Deputy General Manager – Extension and Development at the CCB, N.S. Jayalath said.
“This program is likely be implemented from March 26 or 27,” he said.
The Kapruka Ayojana credit scheme offers low-interest loans of up to Rs five million for fertiliser application, intercropping, and animal husbandry. Farmers who adhere to the recommended practices can benefit from interest subsidies, effectively reducing their interest rate to 3.5 percent, Jayalath said.
Challenges and the road ahead
Despite these efforts, challenges remain. The coconut industry’s recovery is a long-term process and the effects of recent interventions will take time to materialise.
The high cost of input, coupled with the need to replant old trees, poses a significant financial burden on growers. The threat of pests and diseases, such as the Weligama Wilt, remains a concern. The Government has emphasised the importance of avoiding the import of coconuts and coconut products to prevent the introduction of new diseases and pests.
While the high price of coconuts in Sri Lanka is a pressing issue, the Government’s recent initiatives offer hope for the industry’s revival. By addressing the root causes of low yields, providing financial and technical support to farmers and learning from the successes of other coconut-producing countries such as India, Sri Lanka can work towards achieving its goal of producing 4.5 billion coconuts annually and earning 1.5 billion dollars in export revenue. However, sustained effort and investment will be crucial to overcome the challenges and ensure the long-term sustainability of the coconut industry.
