Colombo’s selection of partners for weapons and training will be a significant strategic decision for the NPP Government:
The Government has allocated Rs 442 billion (around US$1.5 billion) for the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in its 2025 Budget, up from $1.45 billion in 2024—a three percent increase—and $1.3 billion in 2023.
The Ministries of Finance, Planning and Economic Development ($2.41 billion), Health and Mass Media ($1.71 billion), Public Administration, Provincial Councils and Local Government ($1.68 billion), and Transport, Highways, Ports and Civil Aviation ($1.42 billion) have received larger Budgets. The Ministry of Public Security and Parliamentary Affairs has been allocated $600 million under which the Police Department falls.
The bulk of the MoD Budget is allocated for recurrent expenditure, with $1.29 billion set aside for this purpose in 2025. Only about $203 million has been allocated for capital expenditure. Similarly, the majority of the Ministry of Public Security’s Budget (about $540 million) has also been earmarked for recurrent expenses. While the Sri Lanka Army has been allocated $761 million, the Sri Lanka Navy and the Air Force will receive $313 million and $244 million, representing increases of three percent, 12 percent and four percent over last year.
During his speech in Parliament as Minister of Defence, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake reaffirmed his Government’s commitment to the previous administration’s decision to reduce troop numbers. “Our vision is to develop a technologically advanced military with a smaller yet more effective force by 2030. We plan to limit the size of our Army to 100,000, the Air Force to 18,000, and the Navy to 40,000,” he said.
While, in theory, this should allow the Government to reduce defence expenditure—something demanded by certain quarters—given that the bulk of the allocation covers recurrent expenditure, including salaries and allowances for troops, it is highly unlikely that the National People’s Power (NPP) Government will significantly cut defence spending in the coming years. Several indicators suggest that the Defence Budget will continue to grow.
The reduction in troop numbers under the so-called ‘rightsizing’ of the military is not as drastic as some assume. The Sri Lanka Army, which stood at around 300,000 personnel in 2009 when the decades-long civil war ended, had reduced to approximately 135,000 by 2024. By December 31, 2023, the Navy had 44,532 personnel, while the Air Force had 17,567 regular airmen and 9,076 volunteer airmen. Over the past 16 years, while Sri Lanka has drastically reduced troop numbers, Defence Budgets have only increased.
Professional Force
The NPP Government has also indicated that it aims to create a more professional Force that incorporates modern technology. This will require continued recruitment of young men and women with stronger academic qualifications. The Government has announced plans to recruit 4,000 airmen and 20,000 new police officers in the coming years. While the President did not specify new naval recruits, it is likely that the Navy will also be allowed to take on a few thousand more sailors, given the NPP Government’s increased focus on the maritime domain.
The Government has announced a substantial salary increase for the Police force, and it is likely that a similar pay rise will be extended to the tri-forces to attract better-qualified personnel. Another key factor driving increased defence spending is the President’s commitment to transforming the military into a “more technologically advanced force.” President Dissanayake has pledged to modernise the Naval and Air Force fleets, increase funding for foreign training, and improve rest and recreation facilities for troops. These initiatives are much needed, as successive Sri Lankan Governments since 2009 have neglected military modernisation. The Sri Lanka Navy and Air Force operate fleets that belong in military museums and local and international training for personnel has declined.
However, questions remain regarding the sourcing of new military technology and training. What will be the origin of the new technologies that Sri Lanka’s forces will adopt in the coming years? Asia is not only the world’s leading consumer of arms but also a significant producer of military equipment.
Last month, former Air Force Commander Udeni Rajapaksa revealed plans to modernise Sri Lanka’s ageing fleet. Last year, the Navy launched NAVSTRAT–2030, a long-term strategic plan aligned with former President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s development strategy.
Geopolitical factors
While the security forces may have an ideal vision for troop, aircraft and vessel composition, these decisions are ultimately influenced by politics. A state—particularly a small island nation such as Sri Lanka—cannot purchase military equipment based solely on financial or operational considerations. Geopolitical factors play a major role in defence procurement. For instance, most countries only sell weapons to nations they consider allies and states often procure weapon systems as a means of demonstrating allegiance to the supplier country. In Sri Lanka’s case, previous attempts to purchase aircraft from Pakistan were blocked due to Indian objections. Similarly, Sri Lanka’s marine research efforts have been hampered by American and Indian objections to Chinese research vessels docking in the country.
Over the past few decades, several Asian nations have invested significantly in developing their own domestic arms industries. China, and to a lesser extent India and South Korea, have progressed from producing relatively simple weaponry to manufacturing highly sophisticated military equipment.
By 2025, China is virtually self-sufficient in armaments and a global leader in future defence technologies. Beijing also exports nearly every category of conventional military equipment—from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to naval vessels and fighter aircraft—at lower costs and with fewer political conditions attached. Meanwhile, India has imported large quantities of foreign military technology—primarily from the Soviet Union/Russia, but also from France and the United Kingdom—to develop its indigenous military-industrial complex. In the 2023–24 financial year, India exported $2.63 billion worth of defence equipment. According to the Business Standard, Indian defence exports have grown 31-fold between 2014 and 2024.
Despite Sri Lanka’s downsizing of its military, necessary personnel enhancements and technological modernisation suggest that the Defence Budget will continue to rise. The country’s defence acquisitions will be deeply intertwined with geopolitical considerations—particularly given India’s concerns that the NPP is ideologically aligned with China. As a result, Colombo’s choice of partners for weapons and training will be a critical strategic decision for the NPP Government.
(This article was first published in the Diplomat)
