Dissent can be healthy but has to be credible. The credibility of dissent that included a former collaborator with the opposition, such as Maithripala Sirisena is less than credible — very much less than credible.
The removal of two cabinet ministers notwithstanding, the fissure in the governing coloration was a sad one. The people formed the SLPP juggernaut that brought the Mahinda Rajapaksa-led forces back to power in the country. This was not the work of one or two persons such as Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gamanpilla, Vasudeva Nanayakkara, or Basil Rajapaksa.
But all of the above played their roles, in extremely difficult times. Now that commanding juggernaut of a coalition of political forces lies shaken.
It is in most part because the governing coalition’s leadership and indeed rank and file cannot stomach the spectacle of these stalwarts of the Mahinda Sulanga (the Mahinda Force) sharing a stage with the assassins in chief of the 2015 act of treachery against the then Mahinda Rajapaksa regime, Maithripala Sirisena and Ven Athuraliye Rathana Thera.
It was as if the saints that went marching in, had joined the devil himself for a tea party.
There is also — from the leadership’s point of view — the impression that personal ambition has trumped over the pressing concerns of the country. Ex minister Wimal Weerawansa’s serial mentioning of the name of Basil Rajapaksa Finance Minister, has contributed to the idea that personal political ambition trumped.
However, there is something to be said for the respect people have for the role played by Wimal, Udaya and Vasu that makes people seem less than enthusiastic about the abruptness of the move to remove the two individuals. The party supporters at the grassroots hope for quick reconciliation. Perhaps they and the party leadership may be on the same page on this.
CHURN
Nobody in the party — rank, file grassroots, anywhere — seem to want this to develop into a Mangala Samaraweera type of parting of ways. In any event Vasudeva Nanayakkara has sworn that none in the dissenting group want to close ranks with the opposition. They are adamant that they do not want to go down the same route taken by Samaraweera.
The leadership that sacked the twosome Wimal and Udaya, are not behaving as if they relish reading the riot act to the twosome either. It’s as if the rank and the file in the SLPP were shellshocked. Once bitten, four times shy, you could say. That’s why they are backing the removal however.
The mere spectacle of Sirisena on stage was enough to churn stomachs. It could be counter argued that Maithripala Sirisena was a changed man. He did, after all, during his tenure, offer the premiership to Mahinda Rajapaksa then leader of the opposition, after his falling out with then premier Ranil Wickremesinghe.
The SLPP and the SLFP then joined forces and fought two major elections on the same platform and won both of them. But, despite all that, there is a complete absence of trust and that is partly due to the fact that Maithripala Sirisena is who he is.
His somewhat recent utterances have been bizarre and he has said things to the effect that he would ‘pounce when the time is right,’ whatever that means. All this has led to the inevitable question, couldn’t Wimal and Udaya dissent without falling into the lap of the devil himself?
Wimal Weerawansa’s political ambitions are known. If he resorts to throwing the kitchen sink at the government by allying with Maithripala Sirisena at this juncture, the optics of that would not serve his cause.
DOMINANT
On the other hand the governing SLPP has been getting used to the idea of using the allies in the coalition as lightning rods and this makes the coalition’s fellow travelers such as Wimal, Vasu etc feel as if they are mere expendables.
Sagara Kariyawasam the SLPP secretary has on more than one occasion tried to put the collation partners ‘in their place’ vis-à-vis the larger objectives of the governing apparatus.
So, this has been a long gestation turf war, but has come to a head at the most inconvenient moment. The leadership seems to have settled for the idea that the move to deprive the twosome of ministerships may not be popular but necessary at this juncture.
They strategists must feel it is an act of self-preservation for the regime. But the leadership has also come in for the counter accusation that the move is designed to consolidate the power of the dominant cohort in the governing coalition — the Rajapaksa family.
If the Vasu, Wimal, Udaya combination was so averse to the Rajapaksas, would they have so enthusiastically supported the candidacy of Gotabhaya Rajapaksa for the presidency?
At that time, it was seen as necessity. It is also a necessity due to the lack of a proper political base for the three that were nevertheless major cogs in the juggernaut that brought Mahinda Rajapaksa led forces back to power.
One lesson they could learn is that never mind how powerful their presence may have been, they have to build a base for themselves.
Some have argued that they have that base. Wimal, Udaya etc were brought into parliament with massive people’s backing; the preference votes they received were phenomenal in numerical terms.
It still doesn’t mean they have the backing of a constituency in terms of party support.
Their politics is limited unless they coalesce with — who else — at this moment, but the Rajapaksas?
Can they turn that reality on its head because there is an economic crisis in the country? In many ways they may have chosen the worst moment — a crisis — to assert their own political capital. It’s as if the party would have forgiven them at any other moment, but this.
However, despite all that, there is no doubt that the threesome command immense public support and respect despite the fact that they do not command a constituency.
That is why none of them are ‘Mangala Samaraweera.’
That’s why there were no shrill pronouncements made at their exit by the SLPP. It appears the governing leadership is hoping for a quick reconciliation and is wishing all this is but a temporary parting of ways.
The feeling seems to be at least partially mutual. What else could be the meaning of Vasu’s words “we would never join opposition forces?.’
chasm
This does not mean that the chasm that has been created is trifling. But at least the interests of mutual survival demands that both the regime’s leadership and the dissenters who have been sacked find some way, to bury the hatchet, and do it soon.
There is little possibility that the dissenters could feasibly develop as a third wave which would emerge some day as the major force superseding the current Rajapaksa led SLPP.
There is only one way they can accomplish being such a third force, and that is getting Mahinda Rajapaksa on their side instead of on the side of the other Rajapaksa brothers. There is about a chance of that happening, as there is of hell freezing over.
In a political reality in which even Maithripala Sirisena got his fingers burnt with the current crop of opposition politicians, the options open for the dissenters are extremely limited.
It is why it seemed the regime leadership took its chances and made a move. The dissenters have an enormous amount of public sympathy and that’s indubitable, but even that’s not enough in politics unfortunately. Public sympathy is not coterminous with political constituency.
It’s what they don’t have — a constituency of their own. They don’t have a political force behind them. They have not developed political personas capable of taking command, and giving shape to the future. They can’t build such images or auras in a day.
That’s when they have to think of political survival and seek compromise, however unpalatable to them.