First things first — this article is purely this writer’s viewpoint and though this fact should have been clear without having to be underscored, there is a need in these times to stress the obvious.
There is a tendency for politically sensitised types to be highly strung these days, and to an extent that is to be expected.
Now, this writer’s surmise is that the country is being taken in a direction of the South Korea type of embrace of the West which is not a bad thing at all if done properly.
Of course there will be those in Government and outside who will contest this thesis and there will be those who swear that it is wrong.
But if a South Korea type of outcome is the result of the current set of economic problems, that’s a bonanza that nobody in their right minds would be inclined to refuse.
Most seem to concede these days that Sri Lanka is moving steadily towards the Western axis eschewing the embrace of longtime friend China, even though that friendship and the old ties with the Russians would always be honoured.
Sri Lanka seems to be inexorably drawn towards India’s embrace, and this writer would say, by extension that of the Western powers these days.
Though it is widely interpreted as due to necessity and due to dire economic circumstances, the signs are that this movement towards the Western axis is by design and that there has been careful planning that led to it.
The current dire repercussions of the pandemic for instance were not felt when a gentlemen held in high-esteem in the West, generally speaking, Milinda Moragoda, was made High Commissioner to India for instance i.e. our Western tilt was as early as that.
Connections
If the country is moving slowly but surely towards the West then there would be a great outcome if we are partners with the major powers — read US in the main — the way the South Koreans were in lockstep with Western interests during the time of astute President Park Chung Hee.
But sometimes things don’t quite go in that direction, and the allies — particularly new ones — of Western powers end up being nothing more than tiny satrapies that are disposable and are dependent.
Are we at the cusp of major change is the question? There is all this speculation about whether Sri Lanka is headed for a compact with the International Monetary Fund, for instance, and then the corollary to that is that as a country we may go the whole hog in a manner of speaking, and become fully aligned to the West.
The fact that the Finance Minister has close organic connections to the USA has a great deal to do with it. Being an American and a Sri Lankan, it is assumed that he has connections at the level of the bureaucracy and the Government, but this is a ridiculously asinine assumption.
More importantly, it is the writing that seems to be on the wall that’s important.
Most commentators feel that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa are in lockstep. The good relations with India that signify the zenith in Indo-Lanka relations in most people’s opinion are a good indicator that we as a nation are pointed in the direction of the West, and no explanations are necessary as to why that’s a safe guess.
The fact is that we have not been close to any western power from the days of JR Jayewardene who was of course seen as the first among the right of centre leaderships of his time to liberalise.
But Jayewardene did not tie himself economically with the US or any other power the way Park of South Korea did.
The other question that may be asked is whether Sri Lanka is the type of country that could be an ally of the West the way South Korea is, and was.
This is not a nation that has a stable past politically speaking and wars and revolts have been de rigueur in the post independence decades.
The work ethic of the people is questionable, and that’s unpleasant reality.
Work ethic per se would not have been an issue, if it hadn’t contributed to a ton of problems that are economy-related and are therefore a great strain on the social fabric.
Arguably, all of the unrest including the so called ethnic crisis that Sri Lanka experienced were related to economy, and how the disempowered the underprivileged among the population felt.
These were, arguably again, not the conditions in South Korea for instance. The people were able to rally when the South Korean President Park unabashedly allied himself with the US.
They were able to deliver by cranking up industry and it’s not as if that was to please the American ‘master’. It’s just that there was no overlord and supplicant relationship there.
The South Koreans were able to paddle their own canoe once a kick-start was given by Park, by having money and other assistance injected courtesy the Americans.
In Sri Lanka this may not be the shape of a future equation, even if we unabashedly hitch ourselves to the West.
Also our contribution to the partnership cannot be by way of contributing troops for American wars as Park did, or offering bases. This country has a far too politically charged reality for this type of a conspicuous partnership, and we are not a dictatorship, so there can never be the relationship that the U.S has with certain satrapies in South America for instance.
Being a satrapy is not a good idea anyway and that should need no explanation — but a South Korea type of relationship, though uncharacteristic for a South Asian country such as ours, would certainly be an extremely bright idea, if only the two countries have the desire mutually to go there.
Granted
As a country Sri Lanka would not be able to ask for better. Can this administration do it where even JR Jayewardene of the Yankee Dicky reputation failed?
It could happen if there is indeed a special relationship between the Rajapaksas and the Americans. It could happen for other reasons too — if the conditions are right for that type of special relationship.
Of course we would never be a South Korea to the US in South Asia — and if any reference is needed for that, it could be the recent abstention in the UN vote condemning Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
These realities, if excused by our Western allies should not impede a South Korea style dynamic in our relations with the US but the problem is that even per chance we are treated that way by the U.S we should be able to ‘become that country’ that has the collective desire to make that giant transformation that South Korea did.
Most would say we are not up to it and so there is no point in even trying.
But if the Rajapaksas seem to think differently would it help? Can the Rajapaksa leadership deliver a miracle? It seems they may have agreed in principle to take us there, but this writer has no clue as to whether the Americans themselves would ally with them in that way — but it is sorely wished they would! South Korea has lost nothing by way of sovereignty just because the country owes much of the support for its early success to the U.S.
Of course the US never gave Park a blank cheque either and he was on several occasions asked to mend his ways with regard to human rights. But Park was astute. He knew how exactly to use the US offer of support — in return for favours granted of course — and set his country on a transformative course.
It was a win-win if ever there was one. With Sri Lanka there are so many variables, that a similar outcome seems at this time almost unthinkable. But stranger things have happened in the past.